Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Could Escalate Near NATO Borders, Warns Ukrainian Official

In a recent Telegram post dated Dec. 29, Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, raised alarms about Russia potentially intensifying its hybrid warfare strategies along NATO’s borders. Yermak suggested that beyond the current acts of sabotage targeting European infrastructure, Russia might engage in direct provocations on NATO territory.

The Nordic countries are currently on heightened alert following intelligence reports warning of possible Russian sabotage against critical infrastructure including power cables, wind turbines, and gas pipelines. A significant event was the severe damage to the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia on Dec. 25, which is now under scrutiny as a potential act of sabotage. The Finnish authorities have detained the vessel Eagle S, whose anchor is suspected to have caused the damage. This ship is believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” used to circumvent international sanctions.

Yermak highlighted the dangers associated with this shadow fleet and expressed further concerns about unconventional threats. He warned of the possibility of seeing North Korean troops or Iranian proxies, disguised in Russian military uniforms, near NATO borders. “The appearance of North Korean troops dressed in Russian uniforms or Iranian proxies on the borders of NATO countries is quite realistic if Russia is not stopped now. The North Korean military is already fighting in Europe. Who could have thought of this before?” Yermak stated, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of these geopolitical maneuvers.

He further noted the implications of such actions, stating, “Impunity breeds permissiveness. This is the moment that requires strong decisions and strong actions,” urging for decisive international countermeasures.

These warnings come in the context of previous incidents; earlier in 2023, Finland had also investigated Russia’s alleged involvement in the damage to an underwater gas pipeline. However, these claims were outrightly rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who labeled them as “complete rubbish.”

The situation underscores the complex nature of modern warfare where the lines between conventional and unconventional tactics blur, potentially leading to a new phase of conflict closer to NATO’s doorstep.