China’s Military Leap: Outpacing America

In the shadowy corridors of power where national security is the name of the game, a stark message has been delivered to the incoming administration: China is not just keeping up; in some arenas, it’s pulling ahead. As Donald Trump gears up for a potential second term, he’ll be briefed by America’s 18 intelligence agencies on the undeniable fact that while Russia stirs chaos in Europe, it’s China that poses the real, global threat. The consensus among these agencies is chilling: “Beijing is accelerating the development of key capabilities,” they assert, capabilities tailored for a confrontation with the U.S. in a prolonged, large-scale conflict.

American warships tend to be larger and better armed, but China is catching up. One important measure of naval power is the number of vertical launch system (VLS) cells, or advanced missile launchers. CSIS estimates that in 2004 American ships, on average, had 222 VLS cells for each Chinese one. But the ratio will soon tip in the PLAN’s favour (see chart). China is also innovating. America has nothing like the hybrid propulsion systems in China’s Zhou-class submarines, says Tom Shugart, a retired American naval officer. He also points to a Chinese amphibious assault ship under construction, called the Type 076, which will be the world’s largest and the only one with a catapult to launch drones.

China’s air force, called the PLAAF, is on a similar trajectory. Its most advanced warplanes are probably not as state-of-the-art or stealthy as America’s. But having once struggled to develop high-quality jet engines, China now produces models that are near the calibre of those from NATO countries, says Brendan Mulvaney of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a US Air Force think-tank. China is also thought to churn out stealth fighters faster than America does. And the weapons carried by Chinese aircraft have improved dramatically. China is often ahead in areas where America has failed to invest, says John Culver, a former CIA man. He points to the range, speed, sensors and anti-jamming capabilities of Chinese air-to-air and anti-ship missiles.

The most striking progress by China has come in the area of hypersonic missiles, which fly and manoeuvre at more than five times the speed of sound. Such weapons have forced countries to rethink their defences. Earlier this year Jeffrey McCormick of America’s National Air and Space Intelligence Centre told Congress that China had the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal. America is testing faster and more accurate missiles, says Mr Mulvaney. But China has already deployed multiple hypersonic-weapon systems.

With other arms that rely on newer technologies it is often difficult to judge who is ahead, not least because they are rarely tested in public. But the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, another think-tank, publishes an annual critical-technology tracker measuring high-impact research across countries. Its survey in 2024 found that China ranked top in six out of seven crucial defence-related areas: advanced aircraft engines, drones and collaborative robots, hypersonic detection and tracking, advanced robotics, autonomous systems and space-launch systems. America was ahead only in small satellites.

Such rankings are contested and fail to capture the secret research done on all sides. Moreover, combat effectiveness is not just the sum of individual weapons and technologies. The failure of Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was at odds with many Western assessments of Russian military prowess, which did not account for intangible factors. China’s armed forces have their own problems, such as corruption, inadequate logistics and poor integration between the army, navy and air force. China also lacks combat experience, having not fought a war in decades.

But that is scant consolation for those watching the PLA’s progress over the past two decades. Few peacetime precedents exist for the speed and scale of China’s military modernisation. It has done it while barely breaking a fiscal sweat, spending less than 2% of its GDP on the armed forces, compared with more than 3% in America. “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge,” said Frank Kendall, the US Air Force secretary, in April. “Our cushion is gone. We are out of time.”

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is in the midst of a transformation that defies historical parallels. Officially, China aims to modernize its military by 2035 with aspirations of achieving “world-class” status by 2049. Yet, the reality on the ground shows that the PLA has already transcended its former image of a quantity-focused force to emerge as a regional power, with some capabilities now rivaling or even surpassing those of the U.S.

Let’s dive into the specifics. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) stands out. Not only does it boast the world’s largest fleet, but it’s also remarkably modern; approximately 70% of its ships have been launched since 2010, significantly outpacing the U.S. Navy’s 25% since the same period. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), this shift in naval capabilities is evident in the ratio of vertical launch system (VLS) cells, a critical measure of naval power, which is soon expected to favor China. Moreover, Chinese naval innovation, like the hybrid propulsion systems in their Zhou-class submarines, showcases a technological edge not found in American counterparts.

In the skies, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is catching up fast. While still behind in stealth technology and jet engine performance, China has made significant strides, producing engines that rival NATO’s, as noted by Brendan Mulvaney from the China Aerospace Studies Institute. The speed at which China rolls out stealth fighters and the advanced weaponry these aircraft carry, particularly in areas where U.S. investment lags, give China an edge. John Culver, a former CIA analyst, underscores China’s lead in missile technology, especially in hypersonic capabilities, where American efforts are playing catch-up.

China’s advancements in hypersonic missiles are particularly alarming. Jeffrey McCormick from America’s National Air and Space Intelligence Centre has publicly acknowledged China’s lead in this domain, compelling a rethinking of global defense strategies.

However, the race isn’t just about hardware. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s 2024 report highlights China’s dominance in critical defense technologies like advanced aircraft engines and autonomous systems, areas where the U.S. leads only in small satellite technology. Yet, these rankings might not fully capture the secretive, cutting-edge research on both sides.

Despite these advancements, China’s military isn’t without its Achilles’ heels—corruption, logistical nightmares, and a lack of combat experience in modern warfare. But the sheer speed of China’s military evolution, achieved with less than 2% of GDP, contrasts sharply with America’s more costly military spending.

As Frank Kendall, the U.S. Air Force Secretary, succinctly put it, “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge. Our cushion is gone. We are out of time.” This statement rings as a wake-up call, underscoring the urgency for America to reassess, innovate, and perhaps rethink its approach to maintaining its military edge in an era where China’s military prowess is undeniably on the rise.